PAC-10 Conference 2007 Predictions - Football

1. USC - For Petes’ Sake: Pete Carroll continues to build a dynasty in the PAC-10. Despite what Les Miles said last week about USC’s easy ride in the PAC-10, a considerable advantage in his mind on the road to the BCS championship game, the carnage continues. The Trojans have a 57-6 Record, with 4-of-the-six losses coming to rival PAC-10 teams. During this streak they have beaten Notre Dame five times, by a combined score of 208-82. By the way, Oregon State has beaten Notre Dame by a combined score of 79-30, with their victories coming just a couple a years after a string of 38 consecutive losing seasons, the most dubious streak in NCAA history.

Les Miles must be on crack because last year the Men of Troy beat a slew of BCS Conference 2nd-place teams handily. The scores are as follows: Big-12 Championship game participant Nebraska (9-5) 28-10, Big-10 runner-up Michigan (11-2) 32-18 (twice in BCS Rose Bowls by a combined score of 60-32), PAC-10 runner-up CAL (10-3) 23-9, CFA orchestrator and BCS special priviledges member and the Grand-poo-ba of college football - Notre Dame (10-3) 44-24 and SEC Championship game participant Arkansas (10-4) 50-14.

I still get quite a laugh about Arkansas, claiming in the 2005 game on national television at the LA Colisium, that USC is just another SEC team. Name another SEC team in the last two years who has beat them by a combined score of 120-28? By halftime, USC had scored on all six possessions and the average drive was less than 5 plays! They play great defense in the SEC ya’know.

In the last two years in the SEC, LSU is the only team who has beaten the Razorbacks in successive fashion, but it’s only by a combined 7 points, 50-43 over the two years. LSU has not only beaten the Hogs the last two seasons, but now has run their consecutive win streak in the annual series to four, and only when combining their four-year run over Hogs does it equal… or better yet, even come close to USC’s two year domination (148-81) . Defending national champion Florida did not play the Razorbacks in 2005, but if you combine their 2004 & 2006 victories it is still only an 83-58 margin. In fact, you have to go all the way back to LSU’s two-year reign over the Hogs in 2003-04 when they won both games by a combined score of 98-38 to get some kind of measure of just how dominant USC has been during this magical period. Still think they are just another SEC team?

In the 2002 & 2003 season’s, USC beat Auburn twice by the combined score of 47-17. Georgia is the only team since 2002 who has beat the Tigers in back-to-back seasons, and oddly enough, it occurred in the same 2002 & 2003 seasons, but the victory margin…50-28? So much for the bal-ly-hooed strength of the SEC, because over the long haul the numbers just don’t add up.

Although the carnage of wins is hyper impressive, the most intriguing aspect of this five year return to glory by the Trojans actually comes from analyzing their losses. A 57-6 record is impressive by any standard, but 6 losses by a total of 25 points is scarry good. Four-of-the-six losses have come via PAC-10 rivals and even more impressive, every loss (other the UCLA’s 4 point victory last fall), has been by 3 points or less. Only Kansas State’s 27-20 victory in 2002 has been much greater than a field goal.

To this day, I am still amazed at the comment from John Saunders of ABC, “We knew when USC finally played a good defense they would lose,” after the 2005 Rose Bowl game when Vince Young literally placed the “Eyes of Texas” on his back and willed the Longhorns from behind to claim the national championship 41-38.

Umm…John, the Trojans had nearly 500 yards of offense on the night and if Reggie Bush hadn’t been on his Heisman high, the attempted lateral in the second quarter still slays me, along with a few questionable, but aggressively greedy play calls through-out the game by head coach Pete Carroll, I don’t think the Longhorns would have won.

It was almost as laughable as the ABC Pre-Gameday Crew, John Saunders and Craig James specifically, prior 2004 BCS National Championship Orange Bowl, declaring that the Trojans, and the rest of the PAC-10 were going to find out just how physical the game is played in the Big-12. Umm…Guys…It was 38-10 at halftime and the Men-of-Troy were heard to be singing loudly in the locker room, while the Sooners might as well have been showering as the final score mushroomed to 55-19.

Given the statistics we have rehashed, you really wonder where Saunders, James, Miles and the rest of SEC Nation has been during this five year run as the Longhorn defense was so good on that fateful night in January of 2005 that Vince Young had to come from 16 points down in the final quarter to win. None-the-less, it was a hellacious game indeed, and we must give credit where credit is due, because the Horns are only one of two teams to put-up over 40 points on the SC-Speed oriented defense in the last 5 years, and the other team ain’t from the SEC…it’s Fresno State. By the way, name an SEC team who has been to 5 straight BCS Games, or even 5 BCS games overall with a 4-1 record?

A word to the wise, if you plan on beating the Trojans, you need to score at least 30 points. The tender spot in the Trojan armour is that Pete Carroll only has a 4-4 record in LA when the opponent scores 30 points or more, and 1-2 when scoring 20 or less.

Here is the Trojan record of games since 2002.

2006-Southern California (Pac 10)
9/2	@	Arkansas (10-4)	W	50	14
9/16	vs.	Nebraska (9-5)	W	28	10
9/23	@	*Arizona (6-6)	W	20	3
9/30	@	*Washington State (6-6)	W	28	22
10/7	vs.	*Washington (5-7)	W	26	20
10/14	vs.	*Arizona State (7-6)	W	28	21
10/28	@	*Oregon State (10-4)	L	31	33
11/4	@	*Stanford (1-11)	W	42	0
11/11	vs.	*Oregon (7-6)	W	35	10
11/18	vs.	*California (10-3)	W	23	9
11/25	vs.	Notre Dame (10-3)	W	44	24
12/2	@	*UCLA (7-6)	L	9	13
1/1	vs.	Michigan (11-2)	W	32	18	@ Pasadena, CA	Rose Bowl
		11-2-0		396	197

2005-Southern California (Pac 10)
9/3	@	Hawaii (5-7)	W	63	17
9/17	vs.	Arkansas (4-7)	W	70	17
9/24	@	*Oregon (10-2)	W	45	13
10/1	@	*Arizona State (7-5)	W	38	28
10/8	vs.	*Arizona (3-	W	42	21
10/15	@	Notre Dame (9-3)	W	34	31
10/22	@	*Washington (2-9)	W	51	24
10/29	vs.	*Washington State (4-7)	W	55	13
11/5	vs.	*Stanford (5-6)	W	51	21
11/12	@	*California (8-4)	W	35	10
11/19	vs.	Fresno State (8-5)	W	50	42
12/3	vs.	*UCLA (10-2)	W	66	19
1/4	vs.	Texas (13-0)	L	38	41	@ Pasadena, CA	Rose Bowl
		12-1-0		638	297

2004-Southern California (Pac 10)
8/28	vs.	Virginia Tech (10-3)	W	24	13	@ Landover, MD	BCA Classic
9/11	vs.	Colorado State (4-7)	W	49	0
9/18	@	Brigham Young (5-6)	W	42	10
9/25	@	*Stanford (4-7)	W	31	28
10/9	vs.	*California (10-2)	W	23	17
10/16	vs.	*Arizona State (9-3)	W	45	7
10/23	vs.	*Washington (1-10)	W	38	0
10/30	@	*Washington State (5-6)	W	42	12
11/6	@	*Oregon State (7-5)	W	28	20
11/13	vs.	*Arizona (3-	W	49	9
11/27	vs.	Notre Dame (6-6)	W	41	10
12/4	@	*UCLA (6-6)	W	29	24
1/4	vs.	Oklahoma (12-1)	W	55	19	@ Miami, FL	Orange Bowl
		13-0-0		496	169

2003-Southern California (Pac 10)
8/30	@	Auburn (8-5)	W	23	0
9/6	vs.	Brigham Young (4-	W	35	18
9/13	vs.	Hawaii (9-5)	W	61	32
9/27	@	*California (8-6)	L	31	34
10/4	@	*Arizona State (5-7)	W	37	17
10/11	vs.	*Stanford (4-7)	W	44	21
10/18	@	Notre Dame (5-7)	W	45	14
10/25	@	*Washington (6-6)	W	43	23
11/1	vs.	*Washington State (10-3)	W	43	16
11/15	@	*Arizona (2-10)	W	45	0
11/22	vs.	*UCLA (6-7)	W	47	22
12/6	vs.	*Oregon State (8-5)	W	52	28
1/1	vs.	Michigan (10-3)	W	28	14	@ Pasadena, CA	Rose Bowl
		12-1-0		534	239

2002-Southern California (Pac 10)
9/2	vs.	Auburn (9-4)	W	24	17
9/14	@	Colorado (9-5)	W	40	3
9/21	@	Kansas State (11-2)	L	20	27
9/28	vs.	*Oregon State (8-5)	W	22	0
10/5	@	*Washington State (10-3)	L	27	30
10/12	vs.	*California (7-5)	W	30	28
10/19	vs.	*Washington (7-6)	W	41	21
10/26	@	*Oregon (7-6)	W	44	33
11/9	@	*Stanford (2-9)	W	49	17
11/16	vs.	*Arizona State (8-6)	W	34	13
11/23	@	*UCLA (8-5)	W	52	21
11/30	vs.	Notre Dame (10-3)	W	44	13
1/2	vs.	Iowa (11-2)	W	38	17	@ Miami, FL	Orange Bowl
		11-2-0		465	240

2. California: The Bears are back under Jeff Tedford. Despite last season’s melt down in Knoxville on opening weekend, the bears recovered to record a 10 win season for only the third time since 1990. How good is Tedford?

In five seasons as Commander in Cheif in Strawberry Canyon, the Bears have amassed a 43-20 record. In the five previous seasons before Tedford took over, the Panda-Bears were an anemic 16-39, and the year before el-cap-i-tan landed ashore, they were coming off a 1-10 season.

Traveling back to his days in Eugene, his record in four years as the Offensive Coordinator for Mike Bellotti and the Ducks was 38-10 with Bowl victories over Minnesota (Sun), Texas (Holiday) and Colorado (BCS-Fiesta); it was the grandest of times in Nikeville, the Ducks best four year run in history. In the four years since he left Eugene, the Ducks are a dysmal 28-21 with four consecutive Bowl losses.

What he has accomplished at CAL is miraculous, what has happened in Eugene speaks volumes to the influence Tedford had with Oregon’s “Air of Success.”

Since taking over the Cal program in 2002, head coach Jeff Tedford has built the Bears into one of the top programs in the nation, leading California to four straight bowl appearances and top-10 national rankings in each of the last three years. Cal’s 36 wins over the last four years are the most in any four-year stretch in over 50 years for the Bears.

Cal returns eight offensive starters, including junior quarterback Nate Longshore and arguably the best wide receiving corps in the nation - junior DeSean Jackson and seniors Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have five starters returning, including sophomore Syd’Quan Thompson, who started in all 13 games last season. Barring a rash of injuries or the black death for any team in college football (a barrage of turnovers), the Bears should host USC for another crack at PAC-10 Championship rights in November.

2006-California (Pac 10)
9/2	@	Tennessee (9-4)	L	18	35
9/9	vs.	Minnesota (6-7)	W	42	17
9/16	vs.	Portland State (non-IA)	W	42	16
9/23	vs.	*Arizona State (7-6)	W	49	21
9/30	@	*Oregon State (10-4)	W	41	13
10/7	vs.	*Oregon (7-6)	W	45	24
10/14	@	*Washington State (6-6)	W	21	3
10/21	vs.	*Washington (5-7)	W	31	24
11/4	vs.	*UCLA (7-6)	W	38	24
11/11	@	*Arizona (6-6)	L	20	24
11/18	@	*Southern California (11-2)	L	9	23
12/2	vs.	*Stanford (1-11)	W	26	17
12/28	vs.	Texas A&M (9-4)	W	45	10	@ San Diego, CA	Holiday Bowl
		10-3-0		427	251

2005-California (Pac 10)
9/3	vs.	Sacramento State (non-IA)	W	41	3
9/10	@	*Washington (2-9)	W	56	17
9/17	vs.	Illinois (2-9)	W	35	20
9/23	@	New Mexico State (0-12)	W	41	13
10/1	vs.	*Arizona (3-	W	28	0
10/8	@	*UCLA (10-2)	L	40	47
10/15	vs.	*Oregon State (5-6)	L	20	23
10/22	vs.	*Washington State (4-7)	W	42	38
11/5	@	*Oregon (10-2)	L	20	27
11/12	vs.	*Southern California (12-1)	L	10	35
11/19	@	*Stanford (5-6)	W	27	3
12/22	vs.	Brigham Young (6-6)	W	35	28	@ Las Vegas, NV	Las Vegas Bowl
		8-4-0		395	254

2004-California (Pac 10)
9/4	@	Air Force (5-6)	W	56	14
9/11	vs.	New Mexico State (5-6)	W	41	14
10/2	@	*Oregon State (7-5)	W	49	7
10/9	@	*Southern California (13-0)	L	17	23
10/16	vs.	*UCLA (6-6)	W	45	28
10/23	@	*Arizona (3-	W	38	0
10/30	vs.	*Arizona State (9-3)	W	27	0
11/6	vs.	*Oregon (5-6)	W	28	27
11/13	@	*Washington (1-10)	W	42	12
11/20	vs.	*Stanford (4-7)	W	41	6
12/4	@	Southern Mississippi (7-5)	W	26	16
12/30	vs.	Texas Tech (8-4)	L	31	45	@ San Diego, CA	Holiday Bowl
		10-2-0		441	192

2003-California (Pac 10)
8/23	vs.	Kansas State (11-4)	L	28	42	@ Kansas City, MO	BCA Classic
8/30	vs.	Southern Mississippi (9-4)	W	34	2
9/6	vs.	Colorado State (7-6)	L	21	23
9/11	@	Utah (10-2)	L	24	31
9/20	@	Illinois (1-11)	W	31	24
9/27	vs.	*Southern California (12-1)	W	34	31
10/4	vs.	*Oregon State (8-5)	L	21	35
10/18	@	*UCLA (6-7)	L	20	23
10/25	vs.	*Arizona (2-10)	W	42	14
11/1	@	*Arizona State (5-7)	W	51	23
11/8	@	*Oregon (8-5)	L	17	21
11/15	vs.	*Washington (6-6)	W	54	7
11/22	@	*Stanford (4-7)	W	28	16
12/26	vs.	Virginia Tech (8-5)	W	52	49	@ Phoenix, AZ	Insight Bowl
		8-6-0		457	341

2002-California (Pac 10)
8/31	vs.	Baylor (3-9)	W	70	22
9/7	vs.	New Mexico State (7-5)	W	34	13
9/14	@	Michigan State (4-	W	46	22
9/21	vs.	Air Force (8-5)	L	21	23
9/28	vs.	*Washington State (10-3)	L	38	48
10/5	@	*Washington (7-6)	W	34	27
10/12	@	*Southern California (11-2)	L	28	30
10/19	vs.	*UCLA (8-5)	W	17	12
10/26	@	*Oregon State (8-5)	L	13	24
11/9	@	*Arizona State (8-6)	W	55	38
11/16	vs.	*Arizona (4-	L	41	52
11/23	vs.	*Stanford (2-9)	W	30	7
		7-5-0		427	318

3. Arizona State: There is a new Sheriff in town in the desert, but he is the infamous, but well traveled - orchestrator of the quick turnaround - Master of the instant exit as he can leave faster than an NCAA probation being handed down - Dennis Erickson. In his words, “Tempe is a Goldmine,” and coupled with the fact that the Sun Devils have notoriously under-achieved under Dirk Koetter, be careful when entering the land of the sun. An Affrican-honey-bee, speed oriented, chip-on-the-Shoulder attitude will prevail under the tutelage of Erickson and staff. Better bring your ear-plugs, as Erickson’s teams at WSU, Miami and Oregon State have brought a thundering rash of trash talking to their arsenol. By the way, the quick strike offense and pin-your-ears back defense should be pretty good as well, and although many people may think I’m off my rocker, they may compete for the conference championship if they can beat the Bears before heading to Troy.

2006-Arizona State (Pac 10)
8/31	vs.	Northern Arizona (non-IA)	W	35	14
9/9	vs.	Nevada (8-5)	W	52	21
9/16	@	Colorado (2-10)	W	21	3
9/23	@	*California (10-3)	L	21	49
9/30	vs.	*Oregon (7-6)	L	13	48
10/14	@	*Southern California (11-2)	L	21	28
10/21	vs.	*Stanford (1-11)	W	38	3
10/28	@	*Washington (5-7)	W	26	23
11/4	@	*Oregon State (10-4)	L	10	44
11/11	vs.	*Washington State (6-6)	W	47	14
11/18	vs.	*UCLA (7-6)	L	12	24
11/25	@	*Arizona (6-6)	W	28	14
12/24	vs.	Hawaii (11-3)	L	24	41	@ Honolulu, HI	Hawaii Bowl
		7-6-0		348	326

2005-Arizona State (Pac 10)
9/1	vs.	Temple (0-11)	W	63	16
9/10	vs.	Louisiana State (11-2)	L	31	35
9/17	vs.	Northwestern (7-5)	W	52	21
9/24	@	*Oregon State (5-6)	W	42	24
10/1	vs.	*Southern California (12-1)	L	28	38
10/8	vs.	*Oregon (10-2)	L	17	31
10/22	@	*Stanford (5-6)	L	35	45
10/29	vs.	*Washington (2-9)	W	44	20
11/5	@	*Washington State (4-7)	W	27	24
11/12	@	*UCLA (10-2)	L	35	45
11/25	vs.	*Arizona (3-	W	23	20
12/27	vs.	Rutgers (7-5)	W	45	40	@ Phoenix, AZ	Insight Bowl
		7-5-0		442	359

2004-Arizona State (Pac 10)
9/2	vs.	Texas-El Paso (8-4)	W	41	9
9/11	@	Northwestern (6-6)	W	30	21
9/18	vs.	Iowa (10-2)	W	44	7
9/25	vs.	*Oregon State (7-5)	W	27	14
10/2	@	*Oregon (5-6)	W	28	13
10/16	@	*Southern California (13-0)	L	7	45
10/23	vs.	*UCLA (6-6)	W	48	42
10/30	@	*California (10-2)	L	0	27
11/6	vs.	*Stanford (4-7)	W	34	31
11/13	vs.	*Washington State (5-6)	W	45	28
11/26	@	*Arizona (3-	L	27	34
12/31	vs.	Purdue (7-5)	W	27	23	@ El Paso, TX	Sun Bowl
		9-3-0		358	294

2003-Arizona State (Pac 10)
9/6	vs.	Northern Arizona (non-IA)	W	34	14
9/13	vs.	Utah State (3-9)	W	26	16
9/20	@	Iowa (10-3)	L	2	21
9/27	@	*Oregon State (8-5)	L	17	45
10/4	vs.	*Southern California (12-1)	L	17	37
10/11	vs.	*Oregon (8-5)	W	59	14
10/18	@	North Carolina (2-10)	W	33	31
10/25	@	*UCLA (6-7)	L	13	20
11/1	vs.	*California (8-6)	L	23	51
11/8	@	*Stanford (4-7)	L	27	38
11/15	@	*Washington State (10-3)	L	19