National Expansion For College Football: PART V

“The Road To The BCS Is A Function of Scheduling.”

Two years ago, at halftime of the Louisville - Oregon State game occurring in week #2 of the 2005 season, I clicked the tube over from the ESPN halftime show to catch the CBS pre-game tilt between a couple of SEC heavy-weights. Contrary to popular assumption, I actually like SEC football, although I get tired of the shenanigans and all the talk of superiority. You wonder sometimes what exactly they need to cover for?

What I witnessed has become a revolving nightmare as Tim Brando, the host of the CBS show, began a smear-campaign against the early season favorites standing in the way of southern sensibilities - “The SEC is the Best, Ya-know.”

It’s amazing sometimes what is said on TV. I started laughing hysterically because as Brando’s statement - “Louisville should be ashamed of its schedule” - echoed off the thundering surround sound set up in my living room, I immediately volleyed back “too bad their first game was a dominating victory against SEC dartboard Kentucky.” A convincing 31-24 victory considering the wildcats came back late to make a game of it. Since Louisville was leading Oregon State (my alma matter) 28-0 at half-time, I found the statement a little on the odd side. I guess I should rephrase that…more like the UFB side.

A year later, during week #5 of 2006 season, as Boise State was climbing the ladder in the polls, the ESPN Gameday crew devoted an entire pre-game show which honed in on the perceived strength of the SEC and the overall strength of schedule issues that plague many of the non-BCS teams. While pumping the SEC, they essentially bashed Boise’s schedule proclaiming that the number three through five teams in the SEC were surely better than the Boy’s from smurf-turf-ville in potatoe wonderland.

While I agree that Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and South Carolina certainly have a greater lineage in the game than Boise State, who only began playing at the Division I level a little over a decade ago, but…is there really a need to proclaim this? Anyone who has a decent football mind knows about the pageantry, history and religious zeal that the southern schools bring to the table. No one questions this! But… the issue at hand shouldn’t extend any farther than the 2006 team, and not the thundering historical perspective of the SEC. The question to ask ourselves should be this - “Is Boise State any worse than Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi and Mississippi State?”

But since the road to the BCS only involves the top-two teams based on the archaic and hidden allianced poll system, some very Carl Rovian like smear-campaigns have began to emerge, specifically since Auburn was left out the BCS mix in 2003.

The non-BCS factor essentially has zero chance of improving their schedule to the point of winning these arguments. And since we’re talking about scheduling how would we ever know if we should be ashamed of our schedule, when most athletic directors schedule games 5-7 years in advance. It’s a pointless and ridiculous argument, like comparing apples to oranges. Posturing is a word that is used often in the marketing industry, but the proper word for this type of endeavour in the football world should be pollstering, because this is exactly what is going on when these smear-campaigns hit the network airwaves.

If college football were to adopt the BCSBuster Regular Season Bracketed Playoff system I am hyping, this non-sense would virtually be eliminated because the focus for all the programs competing in Division I football would be to finish in the top-two…in their own division. Auburn, Florida, LSU and the rest of SEC land wouldn’t give a hoot about what Louisville, Boise State, or even those weak and pathetic members out west - known as the PAC-10 - were doing through-out the year because everything would be settled head-to-head in the final month of November. All Boise State did last year was win every game on their schedule, and when you look at a few of the BCS conference members schedules, clearly there isn’t much difference in a lot of cases.

I thought I would break down the actual 2006 schedules of the members who were voted into the 2006 BCS events, while at the same time comparing the same schedules against what may have potentially happened if we utilized the BCSBuster Playoff Model. It is really hard to knock USC’s schedule last year if you consider they played four of the traditional CFA powers of college football in one season. Yes, the road to the BCS is a function of scheduling and one reason why Florida ended up playing Ohio State and not USC was in fact the schedule. The Trojan schedule was far superior to Ohio State’s, and it cost them in the end.

USC 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
@ Arkansas	Arizona
Nebraska	@ Arizona St
@ Arizona	@ Stanford
@ Washington St	California
Washington	UCLA
Arizona St	@ Washington
@ Oregon St	@ Oregon St
@ Stanford	Oregon
Oregon	BYU
California	California (2nd Time)
Notre Dame	@ Oklahoma
@ UCLA	Boise St
Michigan (Rose Bowl)	Florida (Fiesta Bowl)
Key Opponents: Michigan, UCLA, Notre Dame, California, Nebraska, Arkansas, UCLA and OSU.	Key Opponents: California (2), UCLA, OSU, BYU, Oklahoma, Boise St, and Florida.

USC played Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame in its non-conference slate, while Ohio State played Northern Illinois, Cincinnati and Bowling Green - dominating the MAC once again and most importantly missing a potential road block with Wisconsin. USC’s short-cummins last year were the result of an Irish beer hang-over during the UCLA week. It is really hard to win back-to-back rivalry games, especially coming at the end of the season. This is another reason why the SEC slate is so difficult. The conference is loaded with a slew of rivalry games, unmatched by any other conference. The Buckeye’s essentially had seven weeks to get ready for their lone rivalry game with Michigan after beating Penn State and Iowa back-to-back in week’s three and four.

However, if you compare the hypothetical schedules, would Ohio State even end up in the title game, especially considering the death roll the Gators put on the Buckeye’s in the national championship game?

OSU Real 2006 Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
N. Illinois	Indiana
@ Texas	@ Michigan St
Cincinnati	Penn St
Penn State	@ Purdue
@ Iowa	Michigan
Bowling Green	@ Illinois
@ Michigan St	@ Northwestern
Indiana	Minnesota
Minnesota	Notre Dame
@ Illinois	Michigan (2) B-10 Title Game (Neutral Site)
@ Northwestern	Louisville
Michigan	Florida
Florida (BCS Title Game)	California (Rose Bowl)
Key Opponents: Texas, Penn St, Iowa, Michigan and Florida.	Key Opponents: Penn St, Michigan (2), Notre Dame, Louisville, Florida and California.

Ohio State played one elite team in 2006 before heading to the desert Fiesta in Glendale. However, if the BCSBuster Model had been utilized they would have played Michigan (twice), Notre Dame, Louisville and Florida before matching up with California in the Rose Bowl. Now that would be a legitimate tale of the tape.

On the other hand, it’s hard to believe we could have made USC’s schedule any tougher, but they would have had to punch through Oregon State, BYU, California (twice), Oklahoma and Boise State before beginning a Gator hunt in the middle of the desert.

Florida’s 2006 schedule was similar to the Buckeye’s, except their pre-season meal ticket was C-USA and the Sun-Belt instead of the MAC. The swamp zombies beat UCF, S. Miss and W. Carolina before getting down to business in the SEC. I admit that their schedule was daunting - Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Alabama, S. Carolina, Arkansas and Florida State. Pretty hard to out-do that.

The BCSBuster Model would have actually made their schedule a bit easier but not by much…but I don’t know if the SEC cronies would have anything left to bitch about because they certainly couldn’t complain about the schedule or being left out of the BCS when hypothetically they would have ended up playing Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, S. Carolina, LSU (twice), Wake Forest, and Ohio State, before clashing with USC in the grand final’e.

Florida 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
S. MISS	@ Vandy
UCF	Kentucky
@ Tennessee	S. Carolina
Kentucky	Georgia
Alabama	@ Tennessee
LSU	LSU
@ Auburn	@ Mississippi
Georgia	@ Alabama
@ Vandy	Auburn
So. Carolina	LSU (2) BCS Title Game (Neutral Site)
W. Carolina	@ Wake Forest
@ Florida State	Ohio St
Arkansas (SEC Title Game - Neutral Site)	USC (Fiesta Bowl)
Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl BCS Title Game)
Key Opponents: Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, S. Carolina, Florida St., Arkansas and Ohio St.	Key Opponents: S. Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU (2), Alabama, Auburn, Wake Forest, Ohio St and USC

Come to think of it, that’s not much of an easy road…may even be quite a bit harder. I’m not sure they win the SEC title game with LSU as the Tigers may have won it all if a playoff such as this was utilized.

LSU 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
Louis - LAF	Mississippi St
Arizona	@ Auburn
@ Auburn	Alabama
Tulane	Mississippi
Mississippi St	@ Arkansas
@ Florida	@ Florida
Kentucky	S. Carolina
Fresno St	@ Vandy
@ Tennessee	@ Arkansas (2)
Alabama	Florida (SEC Title Game - Neutral Site)
Mississippi	Georgia Tech
@ Arkansas	West Virginia
Notre Dame (BCS Sugar Bowl)	Oklahoma (BCS Cotton Bowl)
Key Opponents: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and Notre Dame	Key Opponents: Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas (2), S. Carolina, Florida, Georgia Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma.

California’s non-conference slate included Tennessee, Minesota and Portland State, while crushing Texas A&M in the Holiday bowl. Their mock schedule would have been significantly steeper, playing BYU, USC (for the second time), Texas and TCU before a return trip to the Rose Bowl, which would have been a first in over 50 years for the Bears, and a date with Ohio State.

LSU’s toughest games last year were within the conference. Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane and Fresno State were easy non-conference prey, and considering Arizona was down early due to injury, there were four pretty easy victories, but you can’t discriminate the Tigers away from the elite due to the SEC rivalry games with Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas, not to mention their bowl date with Notre Dame…although I consider Notre Dame to be equal to a number of non-BCS powers such as Boise State, TCU, and Louisville (of course they are now a BCS Cinderella).

Could we make it any harder in death valley with the hypothetical model? Yes indeed - Auburn, Arkansas (twice), South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, West Virginia and finally Oklahoma in the BCS Cotton Bowl. Now that’s a dinner plate - WOW! An absolute Thanksgiving feast of a season. That’s 9 games against the elite in college football - in ONE season -UFB!

CAL 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
@ Tennessee	Arizona St
Minnesota	@ Arizona
Portland St	UCLA
Arizona St	@ USC
@ Oregon St	Stanford
Oregon	@ BYU
@ Washington St	Utah
Washington	@ Oregon
UCLA	@ Oregon St (1)
@ Arizona	USC (2) (Pac-10 Title Game - Neutral)
@ USC	@ Texas
Stanford	TCU
Texas A&M (Holiday Bowl)	Ohio St (BCS Rose Bowl)
Key Opponents: Tennessee, OSU, UCLA, USC and Texas A&M.	Key Opponents: UCLA, USC (2), BYU, Oregon St, Texas, TCU and Ohio St.

The Bears suffered the wrath of the CFA alliance last year and carried the weight of the Tennessee loss for much of the season, not gaining much respect until the end of the season man-handling of Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl. There is a significant pattern I have noticed with many of the elite teams within the CFA southern contingency as well as the Big-10 Conference. The road to the BCS definently hinges on strategic scheduling. If you look at LSU’s actual 2006 schedule, they played 6 of their first 9 games at home, damn near guaranteeing six wins. Their three road games came via Auburn, Tennessee and Florida…and they lost two out of the three. Oklahoma played 6 of their first 7 games at home, with their only loss coming on the road against Oregon, although I was at this game and Oregon CLEARLY did NOT recover the fumble on the on-side kick. I sat right in the end-zone, an excellent viewpoint at Autzen as you are right on top of the action, and OU clearly recovered the fumble. I don’t think an Oregon player came within several feet of recovering the ball.

Oklahoma 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
UAB	@ Baylor
Washington	@ Oklahoma St
@ Oregon	Texas Tech
Midd. Tennessee	@ Texas A&M
Texas (Neutral Site)	Texas (Neutral Site)
Iowa St	Colorado
Colorado	@ Missou
@ Missou	Iowa St
@ Texas A&M	Texas A&M (2)
Texas Tech	Nebraska (Big-12 title Game - Neutral)
@ Baylor	USC
@ Oklahoma St	C. Michigan
Nebraska (B-12 Title Game - Neutral)	LSU (BCS Cotton Bowl)
Boise St (BCS Fiesta Bowl)
Key Opponents: Texas, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Boise St.	Key Opponents: Texas, Texas A&M (2), Nebraska, USC and LSU

Florida played 6 of their first 8 games at home, damn near losing both road games as they held on to beat the Volunteer’s by one. As a matter of fact, the Gators only had 4 road dates, and they were all one possession games. I find it ridiculous that Tim Brando can whine about another contenders schedule when Florida is allowed to get away with traveling only four times in a 13 game regular season.

Wisconsin 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
@ Bowling Green	@ Notre Dame
W. Illinois	Illinois
San Diego St	Minnesota
@ Michigan	@ Iowa
@ Indiana	Northwestern
Northwestern	Michigan St
Minnesota	@ Purdue
@ Purdue	@ Indiana
Illinois	Michigan
Penn St	Notre Dame
@ Iowa	@ Rutgers
Buffalo	@ Auburn
Arkansas (Capitol-One Bowl)	Louisville (BCS Orange Bowl)
Key Opponents: Michigan, Penn St, Iowa and Arkansas.	Key Opponents: Notre Dame (2), Michigan, Iowa, Rutgers, Auburn and Louisville.

Ohio State played 6 of their first nine games at home as well, while Wisconsin - who complained loudly about the special priviledges extended to Notre Dame, had a very balanced travel schedule with 7 home games and 5 road events. The problem was they only played four elite teams and missed the chance to recover from their loss to Michigan as Ohio State wasn’t on the schedule.

It’s pretty hard to be too impressed with the Badgers schedule, although Notre Dames wasn’t much better. I hope you noticed how much beetter their schedule would have been using the BCSBusters bracketed playoff model. They would have had a chance to settle the score with Notre Dame as they would have played them twice, along with non-conference foes Rutgers, Auburn and finally Lousiville in the Orange Bowl.

Louisville 2006 Real Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
Kentucky	Cincinnati
@ Temple	UCONN
Miami (Fla)	@ Army
@ K-State	@ Syracuse
@ Midd. Tenn.	@ Rutgers
Cincinnati	So. Florida
@ Syracuse	@ PITT
W. Virginia	West Virginia
@ Rutgers	So. Florida (2)
So. Florida	West Virginia (2) (BEast title Game)
@ PITT	@ Ohio State
UCONN	@ Wake Forest
Wake Forest (BCS Orange Bowl)	Wisconsin (BCS Orange Bowl)
Key Opponents: Miami (Fla), Rutgers, W. Virginia, S. Florida, Wake Forest.	Key Opponents: Rutgers, S. Florida (2), W. Virginia (2), Ohio State, Wake Forest and Wisconsin.

Speaking of Louisville, they played on honorable schedule. Not so much in terms of playing quality opponents, but in their willingness to travel to the lower end of the football world as they played road dates with Temple and Middle Tennessee. When is the last time the elite powers have ever traveled to these venues? Life’s a bitch when no-one will schedule you as Louisville is finding out. I find it hilarious that the CFA contingency ridicules the Big-East non-conference schedules when Louisville hosts ACC Miami and SEC Kentucky, while traveling to Big-12 Kansas State, who beat Texas last season. This is impressive considering Louisville also had to deal with rising stars Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida and Pittsburgh in the race to the Big-East title. It’s no wonder the Big-East performed well during bowl season.

They went on the road and played quality opponents and had a tough conference race down the stretch. It would be hard to one-up that schedule but the BCSBusters Bracketed playoff did just that - AGAIN! Playing South Florida and West Virginia once a year is tough enough, but they would have had to beat both teams twice in the same season, along with Ohio State, Wake Forest and Wisconsin on their way to Orange Bowl glory.

Boise State 2006 Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
Sacramento St	@ Wyoming
Oregon St	Hawai’i
@ Wyoming	Fresno St
Hawai’i	@ Nevada
@ Utah	Air Force
Louis - Tech	@ Colorado St
@ New Mexico St	@ Southern Mississippi
@ Idaho	UTEP
Fresno St	Houston
@ San Jose St	TCU (Rocky MTN Title Game - Neutral Site)
Utah St	C. Michigan
@ Nevada	@ USC
Oklahoma (BCS Fiesta Bowl)	Texas A&M (BCS Fiesta Bowl)
Key Opponents: Oregon St, Hawai’i, Nevada, and Oklahoma.	Key Opponents: Hawai’i, Nevada, S. Miss, UTEP, Houston, TCU, C. Michigan, USC and Texas A&M.

If there is one thing you need to figure out, its the scheduling difficulties of the rising non-BCS factor. If you haven’t read this article, you must go back and click on the link above as it gives you a pretty good idea what TCU, Boise State, Fresno State and some other rising stars face on an annual basis. It’s easy to knock Boise’s schedule. Utah St, Sacramento State and Idaho isn’t exactly the land of the giants. But is it any different than Louisiana Lafayette, Tulane, Western Carolina or Central Florida - who were on the LSU and Florida roadkill curcuit last year? Oregon State, Hawai’i and Nevada don’t exactly shake down the thunder in Knoxville and yes…I agree…Tennessee’s schedule is significantly harder than Boise’s. But all they did was win - even over BCS megapower Oklahoma… you can’t deny that and given the current system how can you knock them as their scheduling woes are out of their hands…damned if they do…damned if the don’t.

Now take a look at their BCSBusters Mock Schedule. With quality opponents Hawai’i, Nevada, S. Miss, UTEP, Houston, TCU, C. Michigan, USC and Texas A&M - I don’t think anyone would question the validity of that schedule if they ran the table because the big-wigs in college football schedule these teams as well.

Texas A&M 2006 Schedule	BCSBusters 2006 Fantasy Schedule
The Citadel	Texas Tech
Louis. LAF	@ Baylor
Army	@ Oklahoma St
Louis. Tech	Oklahoma
Texas Tech	@ Kansas
@ Kansas	Colorado
Missou	Missou
@ Oklahoma St	@ Texas
@ Baylor	@ Oklahoma
Oklahoma	Nebraska
Nebraska	@ BYU
@ Texas	Houston
California (Holiday Bowl)	Boise St (BCS Fiesta Bowl)
Key Opponents: Oklahoma, Nebrask, Texas and California.	Key Opponents: Oklahoma (2), Texas, Nebraska, BYU, Houston and Boise State.

Finally I will end this article with Texas A&M. I get knocked repeatedly because my articles are too long, but if your going to come forth with a legitimate proposal to end the BCS monopoly, you’d better be thorough!

I did not think the Big-12 was very good last year (but watch out this year), especially early in the season. The Oregon debacle magnified their presence, or lack of presence, for most of the year in the top-25. The conference came on at the end. The downward spiral of the conference, occurring ever since USC thrashed Oklahoma at the 2004 Orange Bowl, when so many had predicted a Sooner blowout - to show the weaker sisters (PAC-10) how the game is supposed to be played, should be expected considering the coaching turnover in the last three years.

Dennis Franchione started the new generation when he bolted Tuscaloosa for College Station. Barnett was replaced with Hawkins at Colorado, Bill Snyder retired at K-State and Les Miles left Oklahoma State to be replaced by Gundy - All within the last 3 years. When I promote the idea that every conference has two elite teams, 4 teams who are just under the cusp (perhaps a play or injury away from achieving the big-time) and 4 teams who are inexperienced due to youth, injury or coaching turnover, this is exactly what I mean. And this is exactly why the Big-12 should bounce back in the next couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oklahoma, Texas or Nebraska makes another run at the national title within the next two-or-three seasons, and Texas A&M and Missouri are on the rise as well.

The bottom line last year is that A&M only played 3 quality opponents before getting pounded by the Bears in Seaworld Plaza. However, compare their schedule with the bracketed playoff proposal and tell me that they wouldn’t at least have been more prepared for a big-time bowl venue?

In the final analysis, only USC and Florida played a comparable schedule in 2006 that would have matched up with their mock schedule using the BCSBusters playoff formula. USC played 8 real and 8 mock big time opponents, while Florida played 9 real and 10 mock big time rivals. The other teams are listed as follows:

1. LSU: 6 Real and 9 Mock
2. Ohio State: 5 Real and 7 Mock
3. Louisville: 5 Real and 8 Mock
4. California: 5 Real and 8 Mock
5. Oklahoma: 4 Real and 6 Mock
6. Wisconsin: 4 Real and 7 Mock
7. Texas A&M: 4 Real and 7 Mock
8. Boise State: 3 Real and 9 Mock

The important thing to remember is although there are many thunderous match-ups to be found within this bracketed playoff model, this is only one of the brackets. There would also be plenty of valuable bowl-like match-ups to be found within the final four weeks of the Holiday and NIT Brackets! Which would be a football fans paradise…ending the fueding controversies. If only the games could begin!