Pre-Season Conference Championship Picks For The SEC, Big-12 and PAC-10 Conferences.
August 27, 2007 by bcsbusters
While I admit this venture is flirting with downright foolhardiness, it is loaded with fun nonetheless. Going out on a limb this time of year and predicting what will happen in the next 15 to sixteen weeks is like picking the stock market, only the strongest and most experience shall survive. I guess that qualifies me to look like a buffoon in front of thousands (a.k.a. - Mark May-es-ch).
I’ll start out west in my neck of the woods as it is no secret that I am a guy who believes this conference is much maligned, although I understand the temptation. Those of us who live on the left coast and follow college football religiously know from painstaking experience that the PAC-10 is often it’s own worst enemy. This conference is very balanced as evidenced by the fact that until USC’s recent dominance under Pete Carroll, there was often a new bully on the block. The Trojans have dominated not only the west coast in terms of recruiting but are taking many of the top recruits across the country. This year, USC is on everyone’s radar to play in the national championship. I have them at #1 in my pre-season BCSBusters Poll, but then again, you have to take this with a grain of salt because they have yet to play a down.
You can look at it a couple of ways. Are the Trojans in trouble with a couple of key high profile defections and injuries in the last 10 days, or is it a mark of strength, considering the guys that are hangin’ around the practice field are no strangers to the rivals.com Top-25 list? Only time will tell.
The Popular Choice: 
BCSBusters Choice: 
The Shocker: 
If California can get by Tennessee in week one, after last years embarrassing debacle, the Bears could embark on a Salmon frenzy as confidence is a very strange thing in college football. A little spark can start a huge fire as the offense could ignite the defense. Last year I thought the defense was the spark for the offense, but inconsistencies on this side of the ball in key games with USC, Tennessee and Arizona led to spoilage in Strawberry Canyon. However, due to the fact that the offense looks to be prolific with Nate Longshore throwing to Heisman candidate Desuan Jackson - not only starring at wide-out but return specialist as well - things could be looking Rosy…and maybe even coated with Sugar, by the time bowl season arrives.
The Bear defense was very stingy last year, and I thought they didn’t get the credit they deserved due in large part to their collapse on Rocky Top - down 35-0 early in the fourth quarter - which again, is due to the never ending CFA-BCS alliance which constantly “Bashes The PAC” whenever possible. The Vol’s pulled their starters which allowed the Bears to make it respectable in the end 35-18, but in the minds of SEC Country (and the rest of CFA Nation), the PAC-10 is the Pathetic-10. It was the talk of the nation for the first half of the season, but hardly as whisper was heard across the country when the Bears man-handled the Aggies at the Holiday Bowl in December. UCLA didn’t do the PAC any favors after beating the Trojans in the annual rivalry game, only to be blown out by a very average Florida State squad.
Florida State is my sleeper pick to win the ACC this year due to all the young and inexperienced players who earned valuable playing time last year. The Seminoles were extremely talented last year and had the most freshman and sophomore starters of any team in the country. This could be their year to rise to the top, but I’m a little shaky with this pick due to the massive coaching turnover that took place over the off-season.
Why Washington State? They have arguably the best quarterback in the PAC-10 in Alex Bink, a former pupil of mine who played for me at Sheldon High School, in Eugene. Alex, who possesses a very average arm, is exceptionally bright, especially given the fact that the program he played for in high school (of which I had the privilege to be a part of ) was coached by Marty Johnson, one of the best high school coaches in the country regarding the spread offense. Brink has essentially been in the same offense now for 8 seasons and the PAC-10 has traditionally been dominated by the team who has the best senior signal caller. Result? Better bring your A-game when playing the Cougs as they are a serious threat flying under everyone’s radar.
The problem hasn’t been the offense during Brink’s tenure, but the defense has been extremely young and injury riddled. However, with Bill Doba (Cougar Head Coach) moving back into the D-Coordinator’s role, you never know what can happen in the Palouse. His defense was exceptional during his tenure under Mike Price, back in the glory days of the Fab-Five. If the Cougs are in the hunt in November - going to Pullman at this time of year is no picnic - stranger things have happened!
The Big-12 has had it’s share of off-season controversy as commissioner Weiberg bolted to the Big-10, and coupled with Jim Delaney’s pursuit of financial millions via the Big-10 Network, it has fueled some major whispers around the country. I still believe the Big-12 is really the Big-3 - as Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska look to have rediscovered themselves as the elite members of not only the conference, but college football as a whole.
I have put myself out on a limb at times with my book project where I have chronicled the CFA movement as it relates to the BCS Controversy. The Cal-Texas debate in 2004 fueled much of the energy behind my work. I have said many times the “Bash The PAC” episodes originate specifically out of the south - the primary breeding ground of the CFA revolution. The Big-12 and the SEC, as well as Notre Dame, are the three primary pulpits in this long standing feud between the PAC-10 and Big-10 (the primary supporters enabling the rise of the NCAA bureaucracy). Still question this…think about the hidden agenda behind Oklahoma president David Boren and his rage against the PAC-10 when the Sooners were screwed in Eugene last year.
Yes…it was bad. I didn’t have a good angle on the onside kick in terms of a duck touching it first before traveling 10 yards. What I do know for a fact is that Oregon NEVER recovered the ball - you could see that clearly from my end-zone vantage point.
What I have a hard time with was the key statements by John Saunders on his ABC-ESPN pre-game and half-time shows. He repeated the Oregon debacle for the next 7 weeks and by my count over 23 times on the networks, which continues his ongoing “Bash The PAC” episodes with partner Craig James that have dated back to 2003. These are not just casual responses. There is a clear objective here to utilize a smear campaign against the PAC-10. The CFA / BCS heads clearly want to move to a playoff. The PAC-10, due to their affection for the tradition of Roses has been a thorn in the side of this movement for years, dating back to the CFA Board of Regents/Oklahoma vs. NCAA antitrust suit. Anytime the CFA boys get to hack on the PAC, they take full advantage. I am merely pointing this out because I have kept a running tab on this for four seasons and it is nearing the point of not only ridiculousness, but predictability as well.
With that being said - sorry about the rant - here are my pre-season picks for the Big-12.
The Popular Choice:
BCSBusters Choice:
The Shocker: 
Oklahoma is the easy pick, Nebraska is a bit of a stretch and Missouri would be a Big-12 champion for the first time. Nebraska and Missouri have the inside track to the Big-12 championship game as they have a major advantage playing in the north. How big of an advantage? The Big-12 North Division is 21-51 against the South, with 7 of the wins coming against Baylor. Many people are picking the Tigers to win the North, but I believe it will come down to the match-up between Nebraska and Oklahoma. Yes, I think Oklahoma will resume their annual dominance over Texas in the Red River Shootout. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas turns the tables on all of us and ends up winning the Big-12 overall. It is that close in this conference this year and the swing games may come in College Station and Stillwater, two of the fast risers within the Big-12. This Conference will make some noise this year as it is vastly improved due to the fact that the dust bowl resulting from all the coaching turnover has finally settled.
There continues to be much said about the perceived strength of the SEC and I’ve written plenty already regarding the hype and omnipresence of this super-conference. Do I think the SEC is a great conference? Absolutely! Do I follow it religiously? Absolutely! Do I think it is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the country? Absolutely NOT! And I have the numbers to back it up. In the last decade alone lets journey inside the numbers.
(06) L to Oklahoma State 34-31 in the Independence bowl and barely beat Hawai’i 25-17 in the season opener.
(05) L to Minnesota in the Music City Bowl 20-16.
(03) L to Oklahoma 20-13, Northern Illinois 19-16 and Hawai’i 37-29 in non-conference games.
(02) L to Oklahoma 37-27 in non-conference game.
(01) L to UCLA 20-17 and barely beat Iowa State 14-13 in Bowl game.
(00) L to UCLA 35-24, Central Florida 40-38 and Southern Miss 21-0 in non-conference games, and amazingly went to the Orange Bowl and lost to Michigan 35-34.
(99) L to Louisiana Tech 29-28 in non-conference game.
(9 
L to Virginia Tech in Music City Bowl 38-7.
(97) L to Louisiana Tech 26-20 in non-conference game.
When thinking of “Bama,” one immediately gravitates to memories of the “Bear,” and his immense history and presence in college football. When I think of “Bama,” I think of Keith Dunnavant and his series of books on the legendary coach, but I am also reminded of my favorite book of his - “The Fifty-Year Seduction,” - chronicling televisions influence on the BCS and CFA movements. Since 1997, Alabama is 40 - 41 in SEC Conference games, 3 - 5 in bowl games and 29-9 against non-conference foes. However, if you take out the weaker sisters (Louisana-Monroe, Duke, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State and Utah State in the last two years alone) it is far less impressive.
I am also introducing a BCSBuster concept in ranking the true strength of each team. This will be called the Quality Opponent Factor (QOF - Rating) which ranks how a team has performed against opponents who went on to win 9 or more games during the same season the two teams were scheduled. Alabama was 10-35 against teams who won nine or more games in the last decade, for a QOF-Rating of .222 (win percentage total). Twenty-two percent of the time, in the last decade, against opponents who won nine or more games, the great Tide program won.
Wow…earth-shattering! And yet, today, when we think of Alabama, our minds naturally think of all the championship trophies that were hoisted by “Bear” and his players. The branding identity created by television is a major contributing factor to the SEC bandwagon.
TOMA - better known as Top-Of-The-Mind Awareness is the culprit. For example, when I say cereal, most people instantly think of Wheaties. When I say tooth-paste, most of us think of Crest. When I say beer, most people will think of Budweiser or Miller Lite. This is because of the branding identity created by television whose objective is to create TOMA for their products. The TOMA created for the SEC was largely developed during the pre-85 scholarship era, as most of the SEC teams today have had their bouts with mediocrity and are mortal much like the rest of the nation.
(05) L to Georgia Tech 23-14 and Wisconsin in the Capitol One Bowl 24-10.
(03) L to USC 23-0 and Georgia Tech 17-3.
(02) L to USC 24-17, while beating Penn State in the Capitol One Bowl 13-9.
(01) L to Syracuse 31-14 and North Carolina 16-10 in the Peach Bowl.
(00) L to Michigan 31-28 in the Citrus Bowl.
(9 L to Virginia 19-10.
The Tigers are 51-32 in the last decade in the SEC with banner years coming in 2004, 2005 and 2006. War Eagle is 30-9 against non-conference opponents (although when you consider Buffalo, Tulane, Arkansas State, Ball State, Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and The Citadel, just within the last three years, their air of success is a little distorted). Furthermore, and even more damaging is their 5-3 bowl record in the last decade. I will give them some credit. They do have recent non-conference wins against Washington State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, but they also have losses against Wisconsin, Georgia Tech (twice) and USC - so it kind of irons itself out. Auburn has been as good as anyone in the SEC for the last 5 years so I guess I expected a little better than a (.42 QOF-Rating. Less than 50% of the time, when they have faced a quality opponent, the mighty Tigers have actually won the game.
(06) L to Penn State in Outback Bowl 20-10
(05) L to Notre Dame 41-21 in non-conference game.
(04) L to Notre Dame 17-13 in non-conference game.
(03) L to Clemson in Peach Bowl 27-14.
(02) L to Miami (Fla) 26-3 and Maryland 30-3 in the Peach Bowl.
(00) L to Kansas State 35-31 in the Cotton Bowl.
(99) L to Nebraska 31-21 in the Fiesta Bowl.
(97) L to Nebraska 42-17 in the Orange Bowl.
The Volunteers are 59-24 over the last decade in the SEC, but if you take out the two most prominent seasons (97 & 98, when they were 16-1 culminating with the 1998 National Championship) they are 43-23, which isn’t exactly something to feel ashamed about. Their bowl record (3-6) is! Coupled with their QOF-Rating of (.465) which, although a little above Auburn, still equates to a less than .500 win percentage against opponents who have won nine or more games, the elite standard of the SEC Conference has been drastically shaken.
The 2000 season is a classic example of the hype surrounding SEC mania. Tennessee played two teams that year who won more than 9 games, Florida (10-3) and Kansas State (11-3) and were beaten by both. They also lost to the two next strongest teams on the schedule, (8-4) Georgia and (8-4) LSU. They did manage to beat S. Miss (8-4), South Carolina (8-4), Arkansas (6-6), Memphis (4-7), Vanderbilt (3-8), Alabama (3-8), Kentucky (2-9) and Louisiana-Monroe (1-10). On any given year, if you follow the scheduling pattern of the SEC, a team is almost guaranteed 7-8 wins when considering the bottom half of the conference and the chronic habit of scheduling the Sun-Belt, C-USA, Buffalo, Temple and Duke.
(04) L to Iowa 30-25 in Capitol One Bowl
(02) L to Virginia Tech 28-6 and Texas 30-25 in the Cotton Bowl
(99) L to Houston 20-7 in non-conference game.
(9 L to Notre Dame 39-36 in non-conference game.
(97) L to Notre Dame 24-6, but then beat the Irish 6 weeks later 27-9 at the Independence Bowl.
Louisiana State’s number are radically different than the previous three - Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee. LSU has a 53-31 mark in the SEC and is 6-2 in bowl games in the last decade. Even though the SEC roadkill docket is still on display with wins over Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, North Texas, Appalachian State, Troy, Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana Tech in recent years, they have managed to schedule and beat Arizona (twice), Arizona State, Oregon State and Fresno State (not to mention Notre Dame, Miami and Oklahoma in their bowl ventures).
I’m sure the PAC-10 / West Coast bashers will be out in force, but if you look inside the numbers it’s a bit more revealing. LSU’s 22-21 victory over Oregon State (incredibly via 3 misses extra points - only the Beavers with their history of ineptitude could pull that off) and the Tigers miraculous 4th quarter 35-31 comeback against the Sun Devils in Tempe are conspicuously similar to their 2004 victories over Auburn (10-9), Florida (24-21), Mississippi (27-24) and their 2005 victories over Florida (21-17), Auburn (20-17), Alabama (16-13) and Arkansas (19-17).
The Beavers and Sun Devils were both middle of the road PAC-10 teams, while the SEC teams were mostly upper tier SEC teams considering Auburn and Florida were both 9-3 and Alabama was 10-2.
Obviously, Oregon State and Arizona State are not considered equal to Florida, Auburn, Alabama or LSU, but is this due to the actual results on the field or the branding identity we associate with many schools due to television exposure (again - prior to the pre-85 scholarship rule)? This is TOMA (Top-Of-The-Mind awareness) at work!
Since 2003, LSU has lost a total of 8 games and 7 of the eight have occurred inside the SEC - very similar to USC’s 57-6 mark where 4-of-the-six losses have occurred to PAC-10 foes. Which receives more praise and which receives more criticism? I think you know the answer! Personally, I believe LSU is among the top five teams this decade of the new millennium. However, when you look at LSU’s QOF-Rating of (.425) we get a whole different picture of the SEC for they have only been successful forty-two point five percent of the time when playing opponents who have achieved the elite nine win standard.
(05) L to West Virginia 38-35 in BCS Sugar Bowl.
(01) L to Boston College in the Music City Bowl 20-10.
(00), (99) and (9 lost to Georgia Tech in the annual in-state rivalry 27-15, 51-48 (they don’t always play great defense in the SEC) and 21-19.
The Bulldogs and Tigers share a common communion. Both have been equally outstanding during the last decade. I’ve read several articles criticizing head coach Mark Richt, but I can’t imagine a better coach for any given institution. Coach Richt is an unbelievable coach of impeccable character and values. Through my research today, the Bulldogs have one of the best, if not the best, ratings of any team in the conference for the last decade.
In the last seven years they have lost just two games outside of the SEC Conference (West Virginia 38-35 in the 2005 Sugar Bowl and Boston College in the 2001 Music City Bowl 20-16). Meanwhile, they have beaten Georgia Tech (six consecutive times), Virginia Tech, Boise State, Wisconsin, Clemson (twice), Florida State, Purdue, Houston and Marshall. Plus, they have a 57-25 mark in the mighty SEC. Their main nemesis is Florida (seven losses in the last 10 years) with Auburn (six losses) and Tennessee (five losses) nipping at their heels. That is impressive. I may have to make a revision in my pre-season BCSBusters Poll and alert the BlobPoll Community of my findings.
Yes, you will still find Western Kentucky, UAB, Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia Southern, Middle Tennessee State and New Mexico State in their historical Bio. But, they have also played Clemson, Boise State, Colorado and Georgia Tech as part of the regular season. The bottom line is the Bulldogs earn an A+ as far as scheduling and the results show as they have an 8-2 bowl record with victories over Wisconsin (twice), Virginia (twice), Purdue (twice), Florida State and Virginia Tech.
However, their QOF-Rating (.447) still falls below 50% as this has been a shocking analysis for me. I honestly was expecting better from the SEC - and this without a hint of sarcasm or criticism intended - again, most likely due to the hype (TOMA) surrounding the SEC. Ya-awl know their the best.
Minus a couple of seasons in the Ron Zook era, the Gators have been the head of the class in the SEC. With an overall conference record of 63-20, two SEC championships and two national championships in just over a decade (11 years), things couldn’t be brighter in the sunshine state. However, the gators are just 5-5 in bowl games and have found their main nemesis outside of the SEC resides within their own state - Miami and Florida State.
(04) L to Miami 27-10 in the Peach Bowl.
(03) L to Miami 38-33 and Florida State 38-34 in non-conference games, while losing to Iowa 37-17 in the Outback Bowl.
(02) L to Miami 41-16 and Florida State in non-conference games, while losing to Michigan 38-30 in the Outback Bowl.
(00) L to Florida State 30-7 in a non-conference game and Miami 37-20 in the BCS Sugar Bowl.
(99) L to Florida State 30-23 in a non-conference game and Michigan State 37-34 in the Citrus Bowl.
(9 L to Florida State 23-12 in a non-conference game.
Yes, we can still find Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, Western Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Wyoming, Eastern Michigan and Middle Tennessee State on the last three schedules, but the Gators also have their yearly rivalry with Florida State (the teams have split the games evenly in the last decade at 5 wins apiece), and have managed to play Miami consistently in recent bowl games. They have the best QOF-Rating of any team in the SEC, but it still falls below 50% (.480).
A key aspect to consider in the QOF-Rating is that many of the opponents with 9 wins or more have come inside the conference, although there are many others that have come outside the conference as well. I will need to dive into this new found rating and perform this for all the conferences to gain a greater perspective of what the numbers actually define. So how good were the Gators last season? They were 6-1 versus teams who qualify with a QOF-Rating (9 wins or more). Thats a score of (.857) or a winning percentage of 85 percent. With their lone loss coming to Auburn, this bodes well for the SEC.
By comparison: (QOF-Ratings)
1) USC (4-1) - .800
2) Ohio State (3-1) - .750
3) Louisville (3-1) - .750
4) Oklahoma (2-2) - .500
5) Boise State (4-0) - 1.00
The drawback with this system is we have to wait until the end of the season to see if teams qualify for the nine win benchmark, but it could be a pivotal factor in defining a national champion if several one loss or undefeated teams qualify for the national championship picture.
The Popular Choice: 
BCSBusters Choice: 
The Shocker: 
I will wrap the rest of the pre-season picks up in a day or two as this article has already gotten a little longer…and much more time consuming than I had originally planned. But the venture was worth it because I have a new rating tool in defining championship “elite” level participants.
[...] in the translation (TOMA Marketing) is the fact that the almighty SEC defenses have given up the following points thus far this [...]