After Further Review - The BCSBusters Pre-Season Top-25

 

 

BCSBusters Pre-Season Poll Before vs. BCSBusters Pre-Season Poll After

“Analyzing with the Quality Opponent Rating (QOF-Rating)

B E F O R E vs. A F T E R

 

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As a result of our BlogPoll Roundtable and a new Barometric tool where I measure how teams have performed in the last three years against opponents who have won 9 or more games, I have made some significant revisions to my original BCSBusters Pre-Season poll.

If anyone questions the validity of ranking USC #1, consider this - they have the highest success rate of anyone in the country - and it isn’t even close - versus an opponent with 9 wins or more in the last three seasons (12-2). The next closest argument doesn’t come from Baton Rogue…but from Auburn (10-4) who I bumped up from #16 to #9. There isn’t but a smidgen of difference between Texas (6-3), LSU (7-6) and West Virginia (5-6) so I went with my gut.

BCS pollstering is a condition determined by scheduling and since Texas has an easier road than LSU, they get bumped to number two and West Virginia and LSU drop one spot - to three and four respectively. If a BCS Championship is truly a function of scheduling then West Virginia has a significant advantage playing in the Big-East as compared to LSU playing in the SEC. Plus you have to consider the “Les Miles” factor so Texas and the Mountaineers get the nod ahead of the Tigers.

Georgia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Ohio State, Michigan and Florida have roughly the same QOF-Rating, so I bumped the Cardinals from #4 to #5, followed by Virginia Tech and Georgia. I completely mis-ranked the Bulldogs initially, but after researching the SEC article I wrote last night, and considering their 8-2 bowl record and their 7-7 QOF-Rating (which was tied for 8th best in the country), I moved them up 14 slots (from #21) to #7.

Wisconsin may still be a bit over-ranked but I’m following my gut instinct and the fact they have beaten two quality SEC teams in bowl games the last two years. As I stated above, I was absolutely flabbergasted to find that Auburn has the #3 QOF-Rating after going 10-4 against 9-win teams in the last three seasons. They follow Georgia at #8. People can say what they want about Boise State and their schedule, but they had the fifth best QOF-Rating (6-3) and after considering the advice of SMQ via Dawgsports - “If your going to rank them, rank’em high” - they jumped 15 slots from #25 to the final entry of the Top-10.

I was very critical of Lloyd Carr in a recent article - stating “I didn’t think he was an elite coach who could win big games consistently.” I even went as far as stating “They are one of the top-two over-ranked teams (Tennessee is the other) of all time,” but after being shocked by their QOF-Rating (6-6, tied for 8th), I stand corrected and humbly move them to #11. Florida actually had the 7th best QOF-Rating (7-6), but my gut instinct says they most likely will not win the conference again this year considering all the replacements from last year. I still think they will end up in the Top-10 by the end of the year. They are aptly ranked at #12.

Ohio State, Oklahoma, Tennessee and California were all fairly even, although the Bears had the worst QOF-Rating (3-6) compared to (5-5), (5-7) and (4-10). But I think these teams are very well balanced here in the rankings.

After the #16th spot with CAL, I simply followed the QOF-Ratings down the list and came up with some pretty good rankings. There isn’t much difference between Rutgers, Boston College and UCLA, for they have been on their way up, while the Florida schools - Miami and Florida State have been on a bit of a slide. Initially, UCLA was ranked one sport ahead of Florida State, but this is ridiculous since FSU drilled the Bruins nine months ago in the Emerald Bowl.  Therefore, I believe their correctly placed with the Seminoles one spot in front of UCLA.

Georgia Tech, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Clemson would be good bowl match-ups as they are evenly matched. Some people would scoff at Arkansas being ranked so low, but when you consider the QOF-Rating (2-13), their lucky to be ranked at all considering I dropped Penn State (1-9), Oregon (1-10) and Hawaii (1- from the rankings altogether, and furthermore - I dropped Nebraska (whom I think may win the Big-12 this year) from #8 all the way to #24 in consideration of the brutality behind their (1-6) QOF-Rating and removed the Sun Devils from #17 to #26 due to their inadequate talley (1-10) as well. I even ranked Notre Dame (equally shocked and mesmerized by their (6-7) #9 QOF-Rating) and gave Iowa (3-8),  TCU (1-2) and Texas A&M (1-9) equal consideration as well.

Let me know if I have succeeded in strengthening my pre-season picks. I may have stumbled onto something here as I can now at least stand behind my picks with a smidgen of intelligent rationale.