BCSBusters: Top-10 Games of the Week

BCSBusters: Top-10 “Game of the Week” California vs Oregon

Here come the Ducks! Craig James called out the PAC-10 Conference in the season opening match-up against Tennessee stating “This is a must win for the Bears - the reputation of the entire conference is riding on the outcome.” While I disagreed with his assertion, I did recognize the critical importance of the game within the overall “Toma Perception Phenomenon” that is grossly portrayed by the television networks as they attempt to steer not only the BCS match-ups, but the other key bowl games as well as the national rankings themselves. More on this later. With ESPN Gameday coming to Eugene, for just the third time I might add (I believe only the 5th or 6th time on the entire west coast - someone please correct me if they have the statistics on this), the eyes of the nation will be on the PAC-10.

The “Herd Alert” on ESPN radio also states the importance of a close well played match-up to keep the west coast well entrenched within the Top-10, as they currently have 3 teams ranked in the Top-10 of the national polls - 4 in the Top-15 if you include the BCSBusters Poll - so I will echo Craig James again - it’s vital that the conference put on a good showing.

However, something tells me that this could end up being a game of excellence, similar to the Fresno State - USC affair two years ago, and yet most of the die-hard football fans in the South and East will barely recognize the match-up. And even if they do watch, they will find some nit-picking statistic that will deemphasize the quality of play. So instead of calling out the PAC-10 or California, on this occasion I’m calling out the Ducks.

Oregon has been here before, now its time to put up or shut up, and not only in this game, but carrying on after the game for the rest of the season, and actually acting like a big-time program who can handle multiple big-time games within a single season.

I’m sure Duck fans will be “Quack Attacking” me on this one, but with a Quality Opponent Factor Rating of 1-8, within the last three years specifically - NOW is not the time to regurgitate your inferiority complex, but to actually do something about it. A negative showing here will have significant consequences, for in the eyes of the nation, it will destroy the momentum you’ve built up thus far - totally destroying the credibility of not only the current season, but stellar seasons within the past as well.

The game itself is a virtual toss-up and I think the only edge will be the Autzen factor itself. Many people believe Oregon is a different team in Autzen, but the reality is the noise factor is so loud that the Ducks benefit from the opponents inability to audible or the series of delay of game or illegal procedure penalties that occur with alarming frequency.

With Game Day in town, this place will be Rocking! My good associate Spencer Graham, our West Coast Cross-checker for the Royals Organization, was in Ann Arbor - the Big House - and he says it doesn’t even come remotely close to noise factor in Eugene, and they have nearly double the capacity. Eugene and Duck Nation will be amped for this one!

But for some reason, I can’t pick against Tedford - one of my favorite coaches along with Mark Richt, simply for their professional demeanor and the first class manner in which both carry themselves, no matter the outcome.

This is a game where I will likely have an identity crisis, because I will be confused regarding who exactly to root for. On paper, its the 40th ranked offense of the Bears going against the 78th ranked defense for the Ducks, and the 7th ranked offense of the Ducks battling a NOT-SO- “Golden” 58th ranked defense. They both about balance each other out and I think it will come down to turnovers and who is ahead at half-time, for the Ducks are all but impossible to beat when they are ahead at the half, especially inside the friendly confines of Autzen. With Craig James-like vultures lurking, lets just hope for the sake of the PAC-10 that its one for the ages! Prediction: CAL 38 - Oregon 35 in overtime!

(1-0) (4-0)	(1-0) (4-0)
CAL 44 - Tennessee 31	UO 48 - Houston 27
CAL 34 - Colorado St 28	UO 39 - Michigan 7
CAL 42 - Louisiana Tech 12	UO 55 - Fresno St 21
CAL 45 - Arizona 27	UO 55 - Stanford 31
Next: Oregon State	Next: Washington State
@ UCLA	@ Washington
@ ASU	USC
Washington State	Arizona State
USC	@ Arizona
@ Washington	@ UCLA
@ Stanford	@ Oregon State
Last Bowl: Holiday (W)	Last Bowl: Las Vegas (L)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 4 (0 - 4)
Harris Poll Rank: 6	Harris Poll Rank: 10
Total Offense: 40th (7th P-10)	Total Offense: 7th (1st P-10)
Scoring Offense: 15th (3rd P-10)	Scoring Offense: 7th (1st P-10)
Pass Offense: 69th (9th P-10)	Pass Offense: 50th (6th P-10)
Rush Offense: 23th (3rd P-10)	Rush Offense: 4th (1st P-10)
Total Defense: 54th (4th P-10)	Total Defense: 78th (8th P-10)
Scoring Defense: 58th (5th P-10)	Scoring Defense: 45th (3rd P-10)
RUSH Defense: 30th (5th P-10)	RUSH Defense: 77th (8th P-10)
PASS Defense: 59th (5th P-10)	PASS Defense: 34th (3rd P-10)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 6th (1st PAC-10)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 6th (1st PAC-10)
QOF Rating: 3 - 6 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 1 - 8 (last 3 yrs)

 

 

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week”

West Virginia vs South Florida

 

When ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit announced his Top-5 today, my jaw dropped. Not only has he included two PAC-10 teams in the Top-5 (very SEC like), but he stated that he had questions about West Virginia’s defense. While I think it is great that the PAC-10 gets a little love from the network, I wonder about an ulterior motive. Could it be that Kirk is trying to downplay a rival state in an effort to improve the recruiting potential of his beloved Buckeye’s, or is he simply trying to set the PAC-10 up for an easy fall? If the game is a blowout or if Oregon wins, it will likely diminish the PAC’s status for another couple of weeks, especially since both programs still have Arizona State, UCLA and USC left on the docket.

 

Either way, I think Herbie (Click on his picture) is a little mis-guided on this for if you check out the statistical chart on both teams that I have provided, West Virginia not only has a superior offense statistically to CAL, the much maligned defense is significantly better as well. The Mountaineer’s have the 10th rated offense, and the 15th ranked defense, while the Bears are 40th and 54th respectively. So before you go calling me a conspiracy theorist, or a PAC-10 homer - please remember what I just said - I think West Virginia, California and Oregon are evenly calibrated, and you could include Ohio State, Clemson and Boston College to that list as well. I wouldn’t include Wisconsin in that list, but I will get into this at the conclusion of this article.

When you dive inside the numbers, this game will have a completely different appeal than the CAL-Oregon affair, for defense will rule in this one. Both teams have defensive units ranked well inside the Top-20 statistically, and although South Florida has an offensive unit ranked 70th, I think it will come down to field position and turnovers, as most defensive struggles are decided in this manner. Whoever falls behind first, especially by more than one possession, will be behind the 8-ball in this one.

Prediction: West Virginia 27 - South Florida 23

(0-0) (4-0)	(0-0) (3-0)
WV 62 - W. Michigan 24	USF 28 - Elon 13
WV 48 - Marshall 23	USF 26 - Auburn 23 (OT)
WV 31 - Maryland 14	USF 37 - N. Carolina 10
WV 48 - E. Carolina 7	@ Florida Atlantic
Next: @ Syracuse	Central Florida
Mississippi State	@ Rutgers
@ Rutgers	@ UCONN
Louisville	Cincinnati
@ Cincinnati	@ Syracuse
UCONN	Louisville
PITT	@ PITT
Last Bowl: Gator (W)	Last Bowl: Papa Johns.com (W)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (2-3)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 2 (1-1)
Harris Poll Rank: 5	Harris Poll Rank: 20
Total Offense: 10th (3rd B-East)	Total Offense: 70th (6th B-East)
Scoring Offense: 9th (2nd B-East)	Scoring Offense: 49th (6th B-East)
Pass Offense: 102th (8th B-East)	Pass Offense: 65th (6th B-East)
Rush Offense: 2nd (1st B-East)	Rush Offense: 58th (6th B-East)
Total Defense: 15th (5th B-East)	Total Defense: 7th (2nd B-East)
Scoring Defense: 20th (6th B-East)	Scoring Defense: 13th (4th B-East)
RUSH Defense: 19th (4th B-East)	RUSH Defense: 13th (1st B-East)
PASS Defense: 53rd (6th B-East)	PASS Defense: 3rd (1st B-East)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 23rd (4th Big-East)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 5th (3rd Big-East)
QOF Rating: 5 - 6 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 2 - 6 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Florida State vs Alabama

There was a time a short while back where this match-up would have been one for the ages, but since the 85 scholarship rule has come into affect, both teams have been rolling like the waves in the tide of the Atlantic - up one season, and down the next. This is a very intriguing match-up as expectations for both teams are so unrealistically high every season, another loss by either team will send their legion of fans into a diabolical tirade. Nick Saban will get a sabbatical from this as he is still on his honeymoon in Tuscaloosa, while Bobby Bowden will likely suffer from the weight of all those people who called for his retirement a decade ago.

Unfortunately, the Seminoles have failed to recognize the changing tides of football evolution, as their offense is woefully simple, predictable and extremely outdated, and its almost as if Bobby expects to just roll out the balls, letting his athletes take over, much like he did in an era where they had a gross advantage over other teams due to stock-piling players. As a result: Advantage Tide in this one, although it’s hard to get a read how Crimson Nation will respond after last weekends loss to Georgia. Do they understand that the Dawgs are 23-3 against ranked opponents on the road in the Mark Richt era, or are they still living in the era of the Bear, where national titles were expected? Prediction: Alabama 31 - Florida State 23

(0-1) (2-1)	(1-1) (3-1)
FSU 18 - Clemson 24	Bama 52 - W. Carolina 6
FSU 34 - UAB 24	Bama 24 - Vandy 10
FSU 16 - Colorado 6	Bama 41 - Arkansas 38
Next: NC State	Bama 23 - Georgia 26
@ Wake Forest	Next: Houston
Miami (FLA)	@ Mississippi
Duke	Tennessee
@ Boston College	LSU
@ Virginia Tech	@ Mississippi State
Maryland	Louisiana-Monroe
@ Florida	@ Auburn
Last Bowl: Emerald (W)	Last Bowl: Independence (L)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (2 - 3)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 3 (1 - 2)
Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked	Harris Poll Rank: 22
Total Offense: 89th (5th ACC)	Total Offense: 36th (5th SEC)
Scoring Offense: 86th (10th ACC)	Scoring Offense: 31st (5th SEC)
Passing Offense: 83rd (6th ACC)	Passing Offense: 51st (5th SEC)
Rushing Offense: 76th (7th ACC)	Rushing Offense: 27th (5th SEC)
Total Defense: 23rd (3rd ACC)	Total Defense: 41st (8th SEC)
Scoring Defense: 24th (3rd ACC)	Scoring Defense: 39th (7th SEC)
RUSH Defense: 12th (3rd ACC)	RUSH Defense: 60th (6th SEC)
PASS Defense: 46th (7th ACC)	PASS Defense: 24th (6th SEC)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 42nd (5th ACC)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 30th (3rd SEC)
QOF Rating: 3 - 7 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 3 - 10 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Clemson vs Georgia Tech

This game has lost a little luster since Georgia Tech has dropped their last two ball games to Virginia and Boston College in closely contested venues. Since I have been verbally abused by many e-mailers in the last few weeks for voting Clemson and Boston College so high, I may have the last laugh after all the smoke clears this weekend if Clemson can continue its dominating ways on offense and rely on the speed of their defense.

The problem with the poll system is that we continue to judge a team based on prior history, with most of the history originating in prior seasons. Yes, the Tigers have had their never ending battles with ill-repute, as they have historically floundered down the stretch under Tommy Bowden. The weapons that they have this season, specifically the speed on both sides of the ball, as well as a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback completely drowns out all the noise stemming from this recent history for me. Anytime you can make Florida State look slow, as UCLA obviously cannot attest to, you’ve got to be considered a serious contender just due to the speed factor. I think their ranking is very deserving, but we will find out for sure after this coming weekend. Prediction: Clemson 33 - Georgia Tech 28

(2-0) (4-0)	(0-2) (2-2)
Tigers 24 - Florida State 18	Tech 33 - Notre Dame 3
Tigers 49 - LA-Monroe 26	Tech 69 - Samford 14
Tigers 38 - Furman 10	Tech 10 - Boston College 24
Tigers 42 - NC State 20	Tech 23 - Virginia 28
Next: Virginia Tech	Next: @ Maryland
C. Michigan	@ Miami
@ Maryland	Army
@ Duke	Virginia Tech
Wake Forest	@ Duke
Boston College	North Carolina
@ S. Carolina	Georgia
Last Bowl: Music City Bowl (L)	Last Bowl: Gator Bowl (L)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 4 (2 - 2)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (2 - 3)
Harris Poll Rank: 13	Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked
Total Offense: 32nd (2nd ACC)	Total Offense: 69th (3rd ACC)
Scoring Offense: 19th (1st ACC)	Scoring Offense: 36th (3rd ACC)
Pass Offense: 32nd (2nd ACC)	Pass Offense: 105th (11th ACC)
Rush Offense: 40th (2nd ACC)	Rush Offense: 26th (1st ACC)
Total Defense: 36th (6th ACC)	Total Defense: 32nd (5th ACC)
Scoring Defense: 28th (5th ACC)	Scoring Defense: 21st (2nd ACC)
RUSH Defense: 57th (8th ACC)	RUSH Defense: 11th (2nd ACC)
PASS Defense: 11th (1st ACC)	PASS Defense: 71st (9th ACC)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 12th (2nd ACC)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 6th (1st ACC)
QOF Rating: 3 - 6 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 4 - 9 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Maryland vs Rutgers

Rutgers is another team I have had difficulty ranking so far this season. The defense appears to be outstanding (ranked #3), although the wishbone express from the Midshipmen exposed them a little bit in Week #2. The offense, featuring a heavy dose of Ray Rice, has been splendid as well, although it is a bit tempered when you consider their three opponents: Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State, no disrespect intended.

This will be their first real test of the season and I’m a little timid in naming a winner, or a score. Maryland is always good for one significant upset per season and with their season hanging in the balance, this could - in fact - be the one.

I think SMQ said it best: “Purdue-Kansas-Rutgers=birds of a feather. Nice-looking birds, at first glance, but no way to know yet if there’s any meat on those bones - between them, this trio hasn’t dealt with pulling out a single close game but also has faced nothing resembling a quality opponent. All the Boilers get for raking 1-3 Minnesota across the coals Saturday is to lead this pack of prove-its.”

No disrespect to Rutgers, but please tell me what they have actually achieved on the field in the last two years to merit a Top-10 ranking, or is it simply because they reside in the top-ranked television market in the country?

In terms of the coming match-up with Maryland, Rutgers has too much momentum and I like their philosophy - “KEEP CHOPPIN” - taking things one play and one game at a time, and they’d better adhere to this philosophy and stay focused with Cincinnati and South Florida coming within the next three weeks if they expect to stay in the Top-10. Prediction: Rutgers 34 - Maryland 19

(0-2) (2-2)	(0-0) (3-0)
Terps 31 - Villanova14	Knights 38 - Buffalo 3
Terps 26 - Florida Int10	Knights 41 - Navy 24
Terps 14 - West Virginia31	Knights 59 - Norfolk St 0
Terps 24 - Wake Forest 31 (OT)	Next: Cincinnati
Next: Georgia Tech	@ Syracuse
Virginia	S. Florida
Clemson	West Virginia
@ North Carolina	@ UCONN
Boston College	@ Army
@ Florida State	PITT
@ NC State	@ Louisville
Last Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl (W)	Last Bowl: Houston Bowl (W)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 3 (3 - 0)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 2 (1 - 1)
Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked	Harris Poll Rank: 12th
Total Offense: 98th (9th ACC)	Total Offense: 9th (2nd B-East)
Score Offense: 80th (9th ACC)	Score Offense: 11th (3rd B-East)
Pass Offense: 108th (12th ACC)	Pass Offense: 19th (2nd B-East)
Rushing Offense: 51st (3rd ACC)	Rush Offense: 16th (2nd B-East)
Total Defense: 21st (2nd ACC)	Total Defense: 3rd (1st B-East)
Score Defense: 45th (8th ACC)	Score Defense: 6th (2nd B-East)
RUSH Defense: 70th (10th ACC)	RUSH Defense: 36th (6th B-East)
PASS Defense: 21st (3rd ACC)	PASS Defense: 5th (2nd B-East)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 47th (6th ACC)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 39th (6th Big-East)
QOF Rating: 2 - 8 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 4 - 5 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Boise State vs Southern Miss.

Southern Miss has been very outspoken against the strength of the Bronco schedule, especially considering the magnificent climb the Blue Turf wonders from Potato-land have exhibited in the last three seasons. Claiming that their yearly contests with the members of the SEC - Alabama and Tennessee specifically - is certainly more challenging than Washington, Washington State and Oregon, the Golden Eagles may have a point, although this year I would obviously disagree with that assessment.

SMQ chimed in again this week with an article today drawing comparisons between South Florida’s recent plight, compared with the near 100 year tradition in college football that Southern Miss can bring to the table.

“Southern Miss’ mid-major, underdog status has never been difficult to accept, because it hasn’t changed in my lifetime. Play elite teams annually, give them a decent game, beat one of them every few years, play well in the conference, win eight or nine and play in the Liberty Bowl, hopefully, or some other, lesser December bowl nobody watches. That’s the reality of the program for the better part of the last quarter-century, and it’s successful enough in the long haul. We take pride in consistency: a winning record every year, thirteen years running now. Nobody talks about national championships. By all existing evidence, winning Conference USA is the ceiling, and that’s perfectly fine. That’s what the program is. This is vastly preferably to going 2-6 in the SEC year after year”

“Now: the dominoes that began to fall when Miami and Virginia Tech bolted for the Big East left an obvious opportunity in that league, which was not going to look like the SEC. And when it snapped up Louisville, that was one thing - the Cardinals had ascended from ashen depths to the top of the conference by 2004, and, like fellow C-USA refugee Cincinnati, brought a strong basketball presence to a basketball league. These were not more deserving teams on the field, by any means, but at least they had been around, and clearly offered more attractive markets than South-Central Mississippi. You win some, you lose some.”

“On the other hand, South Florida in a BCS conference was and is a slap in the face. It is an embarrassment. The first time South Florida played Southern Miss, in 2000, USM was in its 90th year of organized football; USF was in its third. USM was ranked seventeenth in the nation; USF was a “provisional member” in transition from Division I-AA, an obscure footnote not really worth putting on the schedule. USM won, 41-7, and took two of three from the stagnating Bulls from 2002-04. The loss, by three points and a missed field goal on the final play and unquestionably the high point of USF’s mostly I-AA-laden 21-game home winning streak in 2002, was an abject humiliation, emphatically corrected in the next two meetings. South Florida roughly broke even in Conference USA, did not come close to contending for a conference championship and finished 4-7 in 2004, its last year in the league. But when the Big East came calling the same year with big bucks at stake, conference titles, two and a half decades of barely interrupted success and tradition - any tradition - couldn’t hold a candle to geography and marketing.”

Personally, I think this match-up would and should occur every year, especially if college football adopted BCSBuster Bracketology. The non-BCS programs certainly lack a branding identity in college football, even in spite of Boise State’s miracle season last year culminating in the Fiesta extravaganza. But wouldn’t this make much more sense?

West Division	East Division
1. Boise St	1. TCU
2. Hawaii	2. Houston
3. Fresno St	3. Rice
4. Nevada	4. Tulsa
5. Wyoming	5. SMU
6. Air Force	6. UTEP
7. Colorado St	7. Southern Mississippi

Considering that both Boise State and Utah have crashed the BCS party in recent years (remember - Utah would be a member of the PAC-12’s Northern Division in BCSBuster Bracketology), this conference would draw four members into the BCS Bracket of 32, with the right to not only compete on the field for the BCS national championship, but gain entrance into a variety of BCS or Upper Tier Bowl venues. The four teams this season would likely be Boise State, Hawai’i, TCU and Southern Mississippi, although we could also make an argument for Houston and Tulsa in the East and Wyoming and Air Force in the West.

This makes too much sense to me for it would solve exactly the hindering circumstances that SMQ alluded to above, and provide these programs with a prestigious entry into the grand ballroom of college football. In terms of the present, it’s put up or shut up time for the Golden Eagles for they finally get their much anticipated match-up in Boise. Prediction: Boise State 41 - Southern Miss 31.

(1-0) (2-1)	(1-0) (2-1)
S. Miss 35 - Tenn-Martin 13	Boise 56 - Weber State 7
S. Miss 19 - Tennessee 39	Boise 10 - Washington 24
S. Miss 28 - E. Carolina 21	Boise 24 - Wyoming14
Next: Rice	Next: New Mexico State
SMU	Nevada
@ Marshall	@ LA-Tech
Central Florida	@ Fresno State
@ UAB	SJSU
Memphis	Utah
@ UTEP	Idaho
Arkansas State	@ Hawai’i
Last Bowl: GMAC Bowl (W)	Last Bowl: Fiesta Bowl (W)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 4 (3 - 1)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (3 - 2)
Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked	Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked
Total Offense: 62nd (5th CUSA)	Total Offense: 45th (4th WAC)
Score Offense: 64th (5th CUSA)	Score Offense: 50th (3rd WAC)
Pass Offense: 75th (7th CUSA)	Pass Offense: 59th (5th WAC)
Rush Offense: 39th (3rd CUSA)	Rush Offense: 34th (2nd WAC)
Total Defense: 47th (1st CUSA)	Total Defense: 10th (1st WAC)
Score Defense: 57th (2nd CUSA)	Score Defense: 11th (1st WAC)
RUSH Defense: 43rd (2nd CUSA)	RUSH Defense: 14th (1st WAC)
PASS Defense: 61st (2nd CUSA)	PASS Defense: 18th (1st WAC)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 97th (9th CUSA)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 73rd (5th WAC)
QOF Rating: 2-6 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 6 - 3 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Florida vs Auburn

(2-0) (4-0)	(0-1) (2-2)
Gators 49 - W. Kentucky 3	Tigers 23 - Kansas State13
Gators 59 - Troy 31	Tigers 23 - South Florida 26
Gators 49 - Tennessee 20	Tigers 14 - Mississippi State 19
Gators 30 - Mississippi 24	Tigers 55 - New Mexico St 20
Next: @ LSU	Next: Vanderbilt
@ Kentucky	@ Arkansas
Georgia	@ LSU
Vanderbilt	Mississippi
@ South Carolina	Tennessee Tech
Florida Atlantic	@ Georgia
Florida State	Alabama
Last Bowl: BCS Championship (W)	Last Bowl: Cotton Bowl (W)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (2 - 3)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (4 - 1)
Harris Poll Rank: 4th	Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked
Total Offense: 11th (1st SEC)	Total Offense: 90th (11th SEC)
Score Offense: 6th (1st SEC)	Score Offense: 56th (8th SEC)
Pass Offense: 28th (2nd SEC)	Pass Offense: 99th (10th SEC)
Rush Offense: 11th (3rd SEC)	Rush Offense: 55th (7th SEC)
Total Defense: 27th (4th SEC)	Total Defense: 26th (3rd SEC)
Score Defense: 34th (5th SEC)	Score Defense: 34th (5th SEC)
RUSH Defense: 5th (2nd SEC)	RUSH Defense: 37th (4th SEC)
PASS Defense: 56th (10th SEC)	PASS Defense: 22nd (4th SEC)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 30th (3rd SEC)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 91st (11th SEC)
QOF Rating: 10 - 4 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 8 - 7 (last 3 yrs)

 

As everyone continues to gush over the strength of the SEC, most people have missed the fact that over one-half of the teams in the conference may actually be worse than they were last year. Sure LSU and Florida are on a roll, but name the next elite team? Arguably it would be Georgia…except they got beat by South Carolina…and Steve Spurrier remarked last week how thankful he was that the Gamecocks haven’t been featured on television much this season, for they surely benefited from this network snub so far in the early season polls.

And lets gush over Florida, after all, they barely survived the Rebel cause in Oxford. Of course, Missouri didn’t have much of a problem with this same team. Where does Kentucky mix into the equation? Likely back to reality in the next couple of weeks with LSU and Florida looming on the horizon! Other than this it is much ado about nothing as Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Mississippi look to be average football teams this season, and this isn’t with any disrespect intended - I’m merely looking at the results thus far as I’m sick and tired of the hype constantly spewed towards this conference, as if what - football sucks everywhere else?

The wild card for me is Alabama and Arkansas, two programs who have been very average in the last decade, and who have benefited from the SEC hype specifically within the last 2 seasons. If they can pick themselves up off the canvas and rise again this season, I would agree that the SEC is heads and shoulders above the rest…but I don’t see it happening for the honeymooners are about to crash the party in Tuscaloosa, while Arkansas remains extremely one-dimensional, not to mention the negative body language I’ve witnessed not only on the sideline in their last two ballgames, but well into the stands as well. Houston Nutt better turn it on if he expects to be back with a new athletic director at the helm.

Therefore, I will go out on a limb and predict that there will be new coaches by seasons end in Knoxville, Fayetteville and LSU, and that leaves me to conclude that the SEC is very much like the rest of the nation, sitting with two elite teams, while the other programs cannibalize each other. Look for things to heat up in Tubberville land as well - are you kidding me - the Tigers will be 0-2 in the SEC after this weekend! Prediction: Florida 29 - Auburn 21

 

 

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Navy vs Air Force

Most people wouldn’t bother to pay too much attention to this game, for both teams are considered mid-majors - average at best - by much of the nation. I caught this video on You-Tube earlier in the week and I continue to believe that both Army and Navy would be excellent additions to the Big-East, especially considering the additions of East Carolina and Appalachian State would add immediate credibility - wouldn’t you agree?

North Division	South Division
1. Louisville	1. South Florida
2. Rutgers	2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati	3. West Virginia
4. UCONN	4. Appalachian State
5. Syracuse	5. E. Carolina
6. Army	6. Navy

The Commander in Chief Trophy starts here…unless of course your considering Notre Dame in the mix for they obviously would like to consider themselves in the mix since they schedule these programs every year on their way to BCS megamillions…with the winner of this game taking home the hardware in the last decade. After all, can’t you just feel the tradition and passion exhibited by the fans in Annapolis? Prediction: Navy 24 - Air Force 22

(1-0) (4-0)	(1-0) (4-0)
Navy 30 - Temple 19	Falcons 34 - S. Carolina St 3
Navy 24 - Rutgers 41	Falcons 20 - Utah 12
Navy 31 - Ball State 34	Falcons 20 - TCU 17
Navy 46 - Duke 43	Falcons 6 - BYU 31
Next: @ PITT	Next: UNLV
Wake Forest	@ Colorado State
Delaware	Wyoming
@ Notre Dame	@ New Mexico
@ North Texas	Army
N. Illinois	@ Notre Dame
Army	SDSU
Last Bowl: Meineke Bowl (L)	Last Bowl: Emerald (2002) (L)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 4 (2 - 2)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 1 (0 - 1)
Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked	Harris Poll Rank: Not Ranked
Total Offense: 22nd	Total Offense: 80th (6th MWest)
Score Offense: 38th	Score Offense: 98th (6th MWest)
Pass Offense: 119th	Pass Offense: 114th (9th MWest)
Rush Offense: 1st	Rush Offense: 21st (1st MWest)
Total Defense: 96th	Total Defense: 44th (3rd MWest)
Score Defense: 96th	Score Defense: 98th (6th MWest)
RUSH Defense: 70th	RUSH Defense: 28th (4th MWest)
PASS Defense: 118th	PASS Defense: 42nd (4th MWest)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 77th	Turnover Ratio Rank: 16th (3rd MWest)
QOF Rating: 0 - 3 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 0 - 9 (last 3 yrs)

BCSBusters Top-10 “Game of the Week” Wisconsin vs Michigan State

As I have stated before, in many of my previous articles, there are some very suspicious things that happen on a week-to-week basis in the national polls. Last week I called Stewart Mandel out on the carpet when he ranked Louisville ahead of Kentucky, less than twenty-four hours after Kentucky shocked the Cardinal with a late touchdown score. Stewart must be reading this blog because he issued an apology in this week’s article, stating his obvious blunder.

This week, we have another dubious blunder as both the AP and Coaches Polls have Georgia ranked ahead of South Carolina, and this after South Carolina won the battle between the hedges in Week #2. Although not as significant in the AP Poll as there is only a one spot difference, the coaches poll isn’t as sublime, a five spot difference. This is the second time in three weeks we have a team beating another team on the field, and yet with similar or even superior records…not to mention statistical analysis…a team who was superior on the field ends up inferior in the Poll and Bowl scramble. And the common denominator in nearly 95% of these happenings is the team who was associated with the College Football Association is voted superior as opposed to a team who doesn’t have a significant history in college football, or isn’t a media darling…but every game is a playoff ya’ know!

In the opening paragraph of today’s article, Herbstreit dropped West Virginia out of his Top-5 and inserted California. I know that statistics are not everything, but as the season progresses they become much more reliable. Although we are still several weeks away from developing a strong hypothesis relative to the strength of each team, the lens is starting to focus. However, with all of the attention focused on the incumbent battle between West Virginia and California, what has completely flown under the radar is Wisconsin.

I felt bad last year when the Badgers at 11-1, missed out on a BCS opportunity. That is until I researched their schedule. Since they lost convincingly to Michigan (and how has Michigan performed in their last 6 games?) and didn’t have Ohio State on the schedule, how can we feel too bad for the badgers. Yes, they did win a bowl game over an SEC foe, but I’ve stated for several years that the SEC benefits from the CFA alliance and televisions fixation - and need to sell corporate advertising dollars - that the conference is running about average to all the others and still stand behind that conviction. But in terms of this year, how can the Badgers be ranked this high considering their highest two statistical rankings (Rush Offense and Total Defense) rank no higher than fifth in their own conference, and this is a conference that is arguably one of the worst in the nation, if not the most disappointing in the least? In their last three games against UNLV, The Citadel and Iowa (who lost just a week earlier to woeful Iowa State), they have nearly been beaten in all three. The last play of the game against Iowa would have been a sure touchdown if the Iowa Quarterback hadn’t over-thrown the ball.

I have received a healthy dose of criticism for ranking Clemson and Boston College so high. Yes, I did miss rank Penn State, who I am still high on considering if they hadn’t fumbled on the eight-yard line against the Wolverines last Saturday, they would likely still be undefeated. Their defense will keep them in every game this year, even in spite of their offensive ineptitude. But when comparing Clemson and Boston College to Wisconsin, Clemson is 32nd in total offense and 36th in total defense, while the Eagles are 20th in total offense and 40th in total defense. Compare this with Wisconsin’s totals of 56th in total offense and 30th in total defense? The kicker for me is the same thing that determines nearly all college football match-ups, TURNOVERS, where Clemson is 12th, BC is 16th and the Badgers (?)…77th. Wisconsin has dodged some serious bullets in the last three weeks, but their luck will run out this Saturday.

For the 10th and final BCSBuster Top-10 Game of the week…take your pick between the following match-ups:

vs

Prediction: Houston 38 - ECU 21

vs

Prediction: South Carolina 31 - Mississippi State 13

vs

Prediction: Virginia 21 - PITT 17

 

Prediction: Michigan State 27 - Wisconsin 17.

(1-0) (4-0)	(0-0) (4-0)
Badgers 42 - WSU 21	State 55 - UAB 18
Badgers 20 - UNLV 13	State 28 - Bowling Green 17
Badgers 45 - The Citadel 31	State 17 - PITT 13
Badgers 17 - Iowa 13	State 31 - Notre Dame 14
Next: Illinois	Next: Northwestern
@ Penn State	Indiana
N. Illinois	@ Ohio State
Indiana	@ Iowa
@ Ohio State	Michigan
Michigan	@ Purdue
@ Minnesota	Penn State
Last Bowl: Capitol One Bowl (W)	Last Bowl: Alamo Bowl (2003) (L)
# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 5 (3 - 2)	# Bowls in Last 5 Years: 1 (0 - 1)
Harris Poll Rank: 9th	Harris Poll Rank: 25th
Total Offense: 56th (7th B-10)	Total Offense: 50th (5th B-10)
Score Offense: 45th (7th B-10)	Score Offense: 38th (6th B-10)
Pass Offense: 85th (8th B-10)	Pass Offense: 67th (5th B-10)
Rush Offense: 29th (5th B-10)	Rush Offense: 31st (7th B-10)
Total Defense: 30th (5th B-10)	Total Defense: 14th (4th B-10)
Score Defense: 34th (6th B-10)	Score Defense: 14th (4th B-10)
RUSH Defense: 27th (6th B-10)	RUSH Defense: 26th (5th B-10)
PASS Defense: 63rd (8th B-10)	PASS Defense: 16th (4th B-10)
Turnover Ratio Rank: 77th (9th Big-10)	Turnover Ratio Rank: 30th (3rd Big-10)
QOF Rating: 3 - 4 (last 3 yrs)	QOF Rating: 2 - 8 (last 3 yrs)